[SMM Hot Topic] Exports Exceed 10 Million Level for Three Consecutive Months: Can the High-Growth Record Continue?

On June 9, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 10.578 million mt of steel in May 2025, up 1.1% MoM. From January to May, cumulative steel exports reached 48.469 million mt, up 8.9% YoY.

In May, China imported 481,000 mt of steel, down 7.9% MoM. From January to May, cumulative steel imports stood at 2.553 million mt, down 16.1% YoY.

Overview of Steel Import and Export Data in May

• China's Steel Exports Surpass 10 Million mt for Three Consecutive Months

• Total Steel Exports in China Increase 1.1% MoM in May! Following the China-US Geneva Statement on May 12, trade frictions between the two sides eased somewhat. Coupled with the temporary absence of a crackdown on fraudulent export declarations, the "rush to export" and "export rush" phenomena persisted. According to the SMM survey, the planned volume of HRC exports from steel mills in May increased 3.2% MoM from April. Overall, the total volume of steel exports in May remained high! According to SMM shipping data, the top six countries for China's steel port departures in May were South Korea, Saudi Arabia,

  Vietnam, Turkey, the UAE, and Malaysia. As South Korea may implement anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel in H2, the current "rush to export" phenomenon remains evident there. Meanwhile, countries like Saudi Arabia, with relatively small demand fluctuations and fewer anti-dumping measures against China, have become major destinations for domestic export traders to shift their focus.

  Top Six Countries for China's Steel Port Departures in May 2025

  

  Data Source: SMM Shipping Data

  

• China's Steel Imports Remain Low in May

• On the import side, China imported 481,000 mt of steel in May, down 24.49% YoY, maintaining an overall net export situation. In the first five months, China's net steel exports reached 45.916 million mt.

• Short-Term Outlook for Steel Exports

• According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 49.2%, up 0.1% MoM. Global manufacturing fluctuations remained relatively small, operating in contraction territory for three consecutive months. The global economy's recovery capacity has also weakened in the short term. Based on China's manufacturing PMI data, the new export orders index for China's manufacturing sector in May was 47.5%, rebounding 2.8 percentage points MoM, indicating a significant improvement in China's current overseas order-taking situation compared to April.

  Monitoring data from the World Steel Association showed that the global crude steel production of 69 countries included in its statistics was 155.7 million mt in April 2025, down 0.3% YoY. China's production remained flat YoY, while production in the rest of the world (excluding China) was 69.7 million mt, down 0.57% YoY.

  As of June 6, 2025, the export offers (FOB) for hot-rolled coil (HRC) from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $560/mt, $550/mt, and $445/mt, respectively. The export offer for Chinese HRC was $445/mt. Currently, China's HRC export offers are $115/mt, $105/mt, and $10/mt lower than those of other countries, respectively. Compared to May, the price advantages were -6.5%, +7.14%, and +233.33% MoM, respectively.

  

  According to SMM's latest steel mill export order schedules, the planned HRC export volume for June is expected to increase by 9.37% compared to the actual export volume in May. Meanwhile, China's steel export prices remain relatively advantageous. Therefore, it is expected that steel exports in June will remain at a high level YoY.

  However, the risks faced by China's steel exports are also increasing. Firstly, HRC, as the variety with the largest export volume in China's steel exports, has two of its top five export destinations initiating anti-dumping investigations against China. More anti-dumping cases are expected to follow. On the other hand, Trump announced on May 30 that starting from June 4, the 25% tariff on foreign-produced steel and aluminum products imported into the US would be significantly increased to 50%. Although the direct export volume of Chinese steel to the US is limited, the main importing countries of US steel are also major destinations for China's steel exports, such as South Korea. According to data, after the official implementation of the 25% tariff, South Korea's steel exports to the US dropped by 20.6% in May this year. With the implementation of the 50% tariff, a significant decline in South Korea's steel exports to the US is inevitable. This also poses a crisis for China's domestic steel re-export trade.

  According to SMM's shipping data, as of May 31, the total port departures from Chinese ports in May were 11.6071 million mt, down 6.52% MoM from April. The main reason for the discrepancy with customs data may be the decrease in billet exports MoM in May. Considering that major export traders and steel mills often set annual export targets, even in adverse external environments, there may be instances of volume discounts. Therefore, SMM expects that steel export volume in June will still maintain high growth YoY. However, based on the MoM data, which has exceeded 10 million mt for three consecutive months, there may be a risk of a slight decline. The uncertainty of steel exports in H2 has clearly increased.